Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
